Global AI demand backlog (SemiAnalysis Oct 2024: 3–5× current supply) fills site to 93% utilization. PPA at $22/MWh is below $30/MWh threshold — cost advantage sustains global customer acquisition. 12% pricing premium reflects GPU-scarce market clearing (CoreWeave H1 2025).
Balanced: hardware supply is binding — build-out trails demand, pricing window compressed.
Binding constraint
GPU availability limits total deployable compute
Capacity build-out trails demand growth, widening the supply-demand gap and compressing the pricing window.
Financial models assume 90–95% utilization. Real compound yield is 61–75%. That gap is the difference between 15% IRR and 8% IRR.
Near-binding risks
18 percentage points below the binding threshold
Regime 1 — Balanced: Supply and demand are in structural balance. The facility can serve demand at target utilisation with positive margin across the planning horizon.