Why capital binds
The binding constraint is capital. Its gap metric is 85 % ◌ derived; the runner-up is hardware at 54.7 % ◌ derived, a margin of 30.3 % ◌ derived.
Regime R2 ◌ derived: a mild supply-demand imbalance; utilisation pressure is building while the facility remains cash-generative.
Capital binds at 85 % ◌ derived. Levered NPV is -$54.8 M ◌ derived at a WACC of 10.6 % ◌ derived. The physical envelope clears; the financing does not.
Sweat the current fleetRefresh each cycleRefresh blocked
Counterfactual, sweat versus refresh: at 50 kW ◌ derived design density no next chip generation is supportable — the nearest higher generation enters at 120 kW ◌ derived per rack. The refresh path holds the current generation and matches the sweat path over the analysis horizon; the facility supports 1 ◌ derived generation classes over 5 years ◌ derived.
Whether that is acceptable is a judgment this model does not make.